Efficient market hypothesis

Efficient market hypothesis Introduction: From the last several decades the efficiency of stock market has been the sole purpose of research studies. As a result, several theories have been introduced and implemented in relation to principally how the competition in the stock market will force the known information into the prices of securities. The knowledge of information on a variety of securities that are traded in the market is one of the major factors in influencing the movements of stock market. In the stock market, a securities price tends to move rise and fall depending mainly on the availability of the information. The stock prices in the efficient market correspond to available information and therefore register any rise or fall mainly when recent and unpredictable information is available. The up and down in the security prices largely depends upon the advantages and disadvantages associated with the available information and to what extent it will affect the companys performance which is represented by the secur ity. As it is very difficult to tell whether the information available is useful or not, in the same way it is quite impossible to make predictions about the trend of the stock market, such that whether there will be an upward or downward trend in the near future by using the available information. In the financial market it is not mandatory that all professionals related to market always possess the information about the securities and have skills to evaluate this information for their gain. The only thing the efficient market requires is that few individuals must have the information about securities and as a result of the information supplied by them, the whole market must be well informed and benefitted. Hence the available information plays an important role in determining the efficiency of the stock market. By focussing on the above idea, the concept of Efficient Market Hypothesis has been developed and became one of the most concentrated and debatable topic among professionals and people related to finance and stock market studies. RESEARCH AIM: The main aim of my research is to analyse the efficiency of stock market supported by the concept of Efficient Market Hypothesis. It also aims to depict the impact of the Efficient Market Hypothesis on security trading by reviewing the available literature. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: My research aims to answer the following questions: To what extent the available information, according to the concept of Efficient Market Theory, affects the security trading in stock market. What is insider trading and its impact on the efficiency of stock market. What are the various types of anomalies associated with the stock market and their effect on the stock market efficiency. LITERATURE REVIEW: In this part of my research paper I will re-examine the existing literature on the anomalies and the efficiency of the stock market. An efficient market is defined as a market where there are large numbers of rational, profit-maximizers actively competing, with each trying to predict future market values of individual securities, and where important current information is almost freely available to all participants. In an efficient market, competition among the many intelligent participants leads to a situation where, at any point in time, actual prices of individual securities already reflect the effects of information based both on events that have already occurred and on events which, as of now, the market expects to take place in the future. In other words, in an efficient market at any point in time the actual price of a individual securities already reflect the effects of information based both on events that have already occurred and on events which, as of now, the market expects to take place in the future. In other words, in an efficient market at any point in time the actual price of a security will be a good estimate of its intrinsic value.(Eugene F. Fama 1965) According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, given by Fama, the ups and downs in the prices of securities in the financial market totally reflect known information at a specified period of time. In other words, Efficient Market Hypothesis states that the trading of securities by the individuals is always carried out purely based on the assumption that securities worth are always more or less than the price offer by market. Whereas, trading of securities trying to outperform the stock market will be luck instead of professional skills if current prices fully reflect all available information as well as stock markets are efficient. According to this hypothesis if new information is revealed about a firm it will be incorporated into the share price rapidly and rationally, with respect to the direction of the share price movement and the size of that movement. (Elearn -NetTel) . Efficiency is an unclear word in itself so for more clarification, in my dissertation, I will describe all ty pes of efficiencies: operational, allocation and pricing. I will also give full detail on levels of market efficiency : weak-form efficiency, semi-strong form efficiency and strong-form efficiency. According Random walk theory , there are no trends and format that are being followed by the prices of securities in stock market. There is another fact given by this theory which says that the prices of securities in the past can not be useful for future predictions and fluctuation in prices. The Efficient Market Hypothesis and anomalies related to the stock market developed by the researchers always contrasts with each other. The search for anomalies is effectively the search for systems or patterns that can be used to outperform passive and/or buy-and-hold strategies. (Invest Home). With the invention of any anomaly, there is always a kind of exploitation by the investors of the anomalies discovered in order to increase their profit. This practice make the anomaly disappear with the passage of time. There are so many internal and external factors of the entities that affects the operations of stock market and those factors are often known as Anomalies which plays an important role in over performing or under performing the operations of the stock market by taking into consideration the fact that these anomalies have good or bad effect on the prices of stocks and entities. There are different types of anomalies and some of the anomalies are discussed. Fundamental Anomalies: First type of anomaly is fundamental anomaly which basically depends upon the price of the stock and on the past performance of the entity due to which stock prices rises or fall. Several anomalies of these kinds exist related to the growth, present value and profitability of the companies concerned. Under fundamental anomaly, there exist a most historical and famous anomaly named Value investing and is regarded as the most appropriate strategy for investment purposes. These anomalies depend on the stock value and companys performance based on which the stock prices go up or down. A technique used is to divide the given index into high price and low price to book value stocks. The low price to book concept was developed by Eugene Fama and Keneth French favouring the hypothesis that lower risk is attached to value stocks whereas the stocks with growth are attached with higher risk. According to another anomaly named as low price to sales, stocks with low price to sales ratio perform b etter then high price to sales ratio. According to James P. O Shaughnesey, prices are the only strongest determinant of excessive return. There are several studies which advocates that stocks having low P/E ratio always perform better in the market as compared to stocks with high P/E ratios. In the same manner, the stocks with high dividend yield are better performers than stocks with low dividend yields. There are some other stocks named as neglected stock and are chosen by those with the contrarian strategy. A study was conducted by F.M DeBondtand Richard Thaler on 35 best and worst performer stocks between 1932 and 1977 in New York Stock Exchange and came out with the result that the performance of best performer stocks in the stock exchange falls whereas the stocks with bad performance in the past showed better results when compared to the results of the same stock in the past. Technical Anomalies: Another types of anomalies in which past prices and statistics are used to predict the prices of securities are known as technical anomalies. The techniques used in these types of anomalies include strategies related to support and resistance, moving averages and strength. Some researchers are against the method of technical analysis and say that the investors are hardly benefitted from these technical analysis techniques where as some researchers argue that there is enough evidence and facts that are sufficient to say that the technical analysis method is favourable for the investors. According to technical analysts, the selling of stocks is influenced by the resistance level whereas the buying is influenced at the support level. A signal to sell the stock is developed in case the support level is penetrated by the price whereas a signal to buy the stock is produced in case price penetrated the resistance level. According to the conclusion made by William Brock, Josef Lakonishok, an d Blake LeBaron, the outcomes are reliable with technical rules having forecasting power. But at the same time the cost related to transaction must be taken into account before implementing such concepts and strategies. Another conclusion given by them says that the stock returns generating is more complicated and different process as compared to the results obtained by conducting different studies and researches using various linear models. Calendar Anomalies: Calendar anomaly is another type of anomaly in which various effects are included. In January effect, general and small stocks perform abnormally better in the month of January. Philippe Jorion and Robert Haugen say that, the January effect is, perhaps the best-known example of anomalous behaviour in security markets throughout the world. An interesting fact about January effect is that it lasted for nearly two decades whereas any anomaly hardly survive as traders start taking advantage of the anomalies which results in vanishing of anomaly. Another effect named Turn of the Month was founded by Chris R. Hensel and William T. Ziemba, according to which, in between period 1928 to 1993, the returns for the turn of the month performed well and considerably greater than normal performance. According to study, those investors who make regular purchases may be benefitted if they make schedule to do the purchasing at the end and prior to the starting of next month. In addition to these effec ts another effect is known as Monday effect and is considered to be the worst day in stock market if investments are made on this day. According to study conducted by Lawrence Harris, the week end effect occurs during first 45 minutes of buying and selling whereas prices shows upward trend during the first 45 minutes of trading on all other days. This kind of anomaly may occur due to moods and behaviour of people after weekend holidays. Other Anomalies There are certain other facts that are responsible for affecting the operations of stock market. The size effect, announcement based effect, IPOs, Stock buybacks, insider transactions and S and P game. According to Fama and French (1992), the book to market ratio as well as the size capture the cross-sectional variation of average stock returns in NYSE, and Nsdaq securities. A complete investigation of book to market was provided by Tim Loughran in relation to dimensions of firm size, exchange listings etc and experimental findings of French and Fama are basically forwarded by two features of the data which includes relatively low returns on small, new and growing stocks. Srinivas Nippani, Augustine C. Arize study three main US corporate bond market indices by taking into account calendar based anomalies between the years 1982-2002. In the analysis, the whole bond market as well as two broad classes of industries namely industrials and utilities were taken into account. The study find the mixed response for the weekend effect in the overall bond index and industrial index whereas very less response to utilities index. The findings showed definite proof of January effect on the bond market. RESEARCH METHOD AND DATA: Data Collection Methods: The general idea of business research is that it is concerned with collection of data, making questionnaires and then analysing and evaluating the collected data. In addition to this, the identification of problem and the approach needed to solve the problem is also important. (Ghauri et al., 1995). Data sources are often referred to as the carriers of data information. Basically data sources are divided into two categories namely primary data and secondary data. Primary data is concerned with the interviews and observations collected while conducting research project where as, secondary data is collected by others and academic and non academic sources are included in this type of data. In my topic of research which is to study the efficiency of stock market, I want to use the Desk method that is secondary data collection method. This includes the gathering of information from sources like books, journals related to my topic of research, and from electronic media like internet which is one of the major sources of information. These all sources of information will be helpful for the accomplishment of my research. DATA SOURCES: As I have already describe that I will use secondary method in my dissertation so I have to search a lot for this topic and for this search my main resource is FBES (Faculty of Business, Environment and Society) which provides the best online business information services which is also including the digital management library. Some of the main sources (journal databases) for my research area are given below: EBSCO Business Source. Business Source Premiere. Emerald. Science Direct. NetLibrary. Overall these cover hundreds of journals, and give access to up to a million journal articles. EXPECTED OUTCOMES: While reviewing all the information from available literature on efficient market hypothesis, operations of stock market, price fluctuations and the anomalies of stock market, I have come to the conclusion that the following outcomes could be possible and predictable from my research, If the stock market is efficient then no information can play any role in making any change towards the performance of stock market. The efficient market hypothesis is expected to take any of the following forms which are weak, semi-strong and strong which purely depends upon the availability, and trueness of the past and present information about the stock concerned in the stock market. The anomalies like technical anomalies could be of great help to the researchers and analysts to predict the changing trend in the prices of stocks in the stock market but the transaction cost is the cause of concern while using such technical method. There are some other stock market anomalies which purely depend upon the internal and external factors of the entity and may result in fluctuations in the stock market. The anomalies related to stock market exist for short period of time but function against the concept of efficient market hypothesis and in my research I will find out the facts relating to the vibrations in the stock market as a result of these anomalies. LIMITATIONS AND EXPECTED DIFFICULTIES: While conducting my research I have to face certain difficulties and limitations which may occur during the course of my research. As my research involves the collection of secondary data, I have to be quite aware of the limitations that may arise due to the nature of data. Some of the limitations that are possible are as follows It could be possible that the theory and data we collected for our research is unclear and is not helpful for the companies in their decision making. It is important to check the source of the information as it could be wrong and misleading. It is possible that the theory is quite old for studies and research purposes in todays rapidly developing world. The theory may not be fit for application due to development of new and technological methods and techniques used for the analysis. REFERENCES: Chris R. Hensel and William T. Ziemba (1996)Investment Results from Exploiting Turn-of-the-Month Effects, Journal of Portfolio Management 22, 17-23 Elearn NetTel Financial Analysis Revised: Session 1: Market Efficiency [Online] Available From: http://cbdd.wsu.edu/kewlcontent/cdoutput/TR505r/page4.htm Eugene Fama and Kenneth R. French (1992)The Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns, The Journal of Finance 47, 427-465. Eugene F. Fama (1995) Random Walks in Stock Market Prices, Financial Analysts Journal 21, 55-59. Ghauri, P., Gronhaug K and Kristianslund I., (1995) Research methods in business studies a practical guide Hempstead: Prentice Hall Investor Home Historical Stock Market Anomolies [Online] Available From: James P. OShaughnessy (1998) 2nd edn. What Works on Wall Street: A Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time. New York: McGraw Hills Lawrence Harris (1986) A Transaction Data Study of Weekly and Intradaily Patterns in Stock Returns, Journal of Financial Economics 16, 99-117 Loughran Tim (1997)Book-to-Market across firm Size, Exchange, and seasonality: Is There an Effect? Journal of Finance Quantitative Analysis 32, 249-268 Marc R. Reinganum (1997) The Size Effect: Evidence and Potential Explanations, Investing in Small-Cap and Microcap Securities, Association for Investment Management and Research, 1997. Robert Haugen and Philippe Jorion, (1996)The January Effect: Still There after All These Years, Financial Analysts Journal, January-February 1996. Srinivas Nippani and Anita K. Pennathur (2004) Day-of-the-week effects in commercial paper yield rates. Quaterly Review of economics Finance 44, 508-520 Werner F.M. DeBondtand Richard Thaler (1985)Does the Stock Market Overreact? The Journal of Finance 40, 793-805. Efficient Market Hypothesis Efficient Market Hypothesis Literature Review 2.0 Introduction In order to better understand the origin and the idea behind the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the first section deals with an overview of the EMH. Section 2 deals with the Random Walk Model which is a close counterpart of the EMH. We then have examine the different degrees of information efficiency that exist, namely the weak form efficiency, semi-strong form efficiency and the strong form efficiency. In section 4, we have a brief overview of the different types of statistical tests that have been used in the literature to examine the weak form efficiency. Section 5 explains the implications of efficient markets for investors. 2.1 Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) The concept of efficiency is one of the essential concepts in finance. Market efficiency is a term used in many different contexts with many different meanings. Market efficiency involves three related concepts- allocation efficiency, operational efficiency and informational efficiency. Allocation efficiency: A characteristic of an efficient market in which capital is allocated in a way that benefits all participants. It occurs when organizations in the public and private sectors can obtain funding for the projects that will be the most profitable, thereby promoting economic growth Operational efficiency: A marketcondition that exists when participants can execute transactions and receive services at a price that fairly equates to the actual costs required to provide them.Economists use this term to describe the way resources are employed to facilitate the operation of the market. It is usually desirable that markets carry out their operations at as low a cost as possible. Information efficiency: The actual market price of a share should reflect its intrinsic value. Information efficiency implies that the observed market price of a security reflect all information relevant to the pricing of the security. The investor can manage to earn merely a risk-adjusted return from his investment, as prices move instantaneously and in an unbiased manner to any news. The efficiency in the market for financial assets and assets returns refers here to the information efficiency and should not be confused with the other types of efficiency. As explained by Rahman and Hossain (2006): For a stock market to be efficient, stock prices must always fully reflect all relevant and available information. This definition can be expressed as Æ’(Ri,t, Rj,t à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ | à Ã¢â‚¬  M t-1) = Æ’( Ri,t, Rj,t à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ | à Ã¢â‚¬  M t-1, à Ã¢â‚¬  a t-1), where Æ’(.) = a probability distribution function, Ri,t = the return on security i in period t, à Ã¢â‚¬  M t-1 = the information set used by the market at t à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 1, à Ã¢â‚¬  a t-1 = the specific information item placed in the public domain at t à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 1. This equation has two important implications. 1. Specific information item at t-1 (à Ã¢â‚¬  a t-1) cannot be used to earn non zero abnormal return. 2. When a new information item is added to the information set à Ã¢â‚¬  M, it is instantaneously reflected on market prices. The concept of market efficiency was first introduced by Bachelier (1900). Since then, there has been many studies like Working (1934), Cowles and Jones (1937), Kendall (1953), Cootner (1964). However it was Fama (1965) who first used termed it as à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“efficient marketà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ . Fama (1970) later stated the sufficient but not necessary conditions for efficiency: i. there are no transaction costs in trading securities; ii. all available information is costlessly available to all market participants, and iii. all agree on the implications of current information for the current price and distributions of future prices of each security He also identified three degrees of informational efficiency namely the weak form, the semi-strong form and the strong form. 2.2 Random Walk Model (RWM) The Random Walk Model is a close counterpart of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The model was originally examined by Kendall (1953). It states that stock price fluctuations are independent of each other and have the same probability distribution. Thus the Random Walk theory suggests that stock price change randomly, making it impossible to predict stock prices. The Random Walk Model is linked to the belief that markets are efficient and that investors cannot beat or predict the market because stock prices reflect all available information and the new information arises randomly. As mentioned in Fama (1970) the two hypotheses constituting the Random Walk Model , that is (i) successive price changes are independent and (ii) successive changes are identically distributed, are implicitly assumed in the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The Random Walk Model is in direct opposition to technical analysis, which suggests that a stocks future price can be forecasted based on historical information through observing chart patterns and technical indicators. 2.3 Forms of Market Efficiency 2.3.1 Weak-Form Efficiency Fama (1970) stipulates that no investor can earn excess returns by formulating trading strategies based on historical price or return information in a weak-form efficient market. The weak-form efficiency thus assumes that the price of a stock fully reflects all information contained in past prices, that is the historical sequence of prices, rate of returns and other historical market information. A weak-form efficient market implies that it is of no use to engage in technical analysis that use past prices alone to find undervalued stocks. In order to test whether past share prices can be used to predict future share prices( that is, weak-form efficiency), statistical or econometric tests can be used. These studies seek to study the evolution of share prices from one period to the next period and try to detect correlation between the successive price changes. Technical analysts study the evolution of past share prices, with the aim of predicting share prices to make gains. 2.3.2 Semi-Strong Form Efficiency Fama (1970) described the semi-strong form efficiency as one where share price fully reflect all information contained not only in past prices but all public information. All public information includes capital market information as used in the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis(EMH) as well as non-market information such as earnings, dividend announcements, price earnings ratio, information about the economy and political news (Reilly1997). New public information is almost instantaneously integrated in share price and the share price is adjusted so as to reflect the true value of the share. This means that an investor cannot use public information to generate gains on the stock market. In order to test for semi-strong form efficiency, event studies are often used. These event studies are performed by analyzing the effect of the release of new public information on the share price. If the market is semi-strong form efficient, the new public information ( for example annual reports, earning announcement or dividend announcement) is instantaneously integrated in the share price, so as to reflect the intrinsic value of the share. New information can be both good or bad. Thus they can cause increases or decreases at their release. 2.3.3 Strong Form Efficiency Under strong form efficiency, the current price reflects all information, public as well as private. Private information, in this context, means information not yet published. On the stock market, there are professionals (for example security analysts, fund managers) who have private as well as public information. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) assumes that no investor has monopolistic access to any information. This means that as new public and private information is released, it is incorporated in share price to reflect its true value. An investor will not be able to consistently find undervalued or overvalued shares and make gains on the strong form efficient market. Fama (1970) perceives a strong form efficient market as one where investors are not expected to earn excess returns by relying on inside information. To test whether past share prices, public and private information can used to predict future share prices, the investment records and gains generated by professional investors are often studied. Investors should not be consistently able to make gains by using public and private information. At all moments, the share prices incorporate all public and private information to reflect the true value of the shares. 2.4 Statistical Tests to examine validity of Weak-Form EMH In order to examine the validity of the weak form efficiency, a number of statistical tests have been used in the literature. These tests can be categorized into two groups: i. Using mechanical trading rules also known as filter rules. These rules test for the possibility of non-linear dependence existing in the price data. Filter rules were first used by S.A Alexander (1961) and later Fama and Blume (1966) added to the literature. Professor Alexanders filter techniques attempts to apply a sophisticated criteria to identify movements in stock prices. An x percent filter is defined as follows: If the daily closing price of a particular security moves up at least x percent, buy and hold the security until its price moves down at least x percent from a subsequent high, then sell and go short (Fama and Blume, 1966). The short position is then maintained until the daily closing price rises at least x percent above a subsequent low when one is going to cover and buy. Moves less than x percent in either direction are ignored. ii. Statistical tests of independence between successive price changes. Serial autocorrelation tests and run tests are among the most popular tests. Some of the researches in this field use Spectral Analysis which decomposes a time series into a spectrum of cycles of different length. This spectral decomposition of a time series yield a spectral density function that measures the contribution of each of the frequency bands to the overall variance of the times series. There is also a relatively new test introduced by Lo and Mackinlay (1988), it is called the Variance Ratio which is based on the heteroscedasticity problem. The basic idea behind the Lo and Mackinlay (1988) variance-ratios test is that if a natural logarithm of a time series is a pure random walk, then, the variance of its k-differences in a finite sample grows linearly with the difference, Let (pt) denote a time series consisting of T observations p1,p2,à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦,pT of asset returns. Then, the variance-ratio of the k-th difference, VR(k), is defined as: VR(k)= à Ã†â€™2(k)/à Ã†â€™2(1) where, VR(k) is the variance-ratio of the shares returns k-th differences; à Ã†â€™2(k) is the unbiased estimator of 1/k of the variance of the shares returns k-th differences, under the null hypothesis; à Ã†â€™2(1) is the variance of the first-differenced share returns series, and k is the number of days of base observations interval or lag (Ntim et al. ,2007). 2.5 Implications of EMH Market efficiency has important implications for both investors and authorities. If a market is inefficient, investors should doubt the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“hold the marketà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  strategy and should try to à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“beat the marketà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ . While the authorities on their part should restructure the stock market by enacting effective law and enhancing financial media. The graph below shows the effect of EMH on stock prices. The straight line shows the reaction under EMH while the dotted lines show the over-reaction and under-reaction that occur with the existence of market imperfections. If a market is efficient, investors: 1. should not worry about investment analysis. They should rather concentrate on holding a well diversified portfolio. Investors holding an inefficient diversified portfolio will be exposed to risk which could be avoided and for which they will not be rewarded. In other words, the market only provides return for systematic risk, while specific risks have to be diversified away. 2. Should adopt a buy and hold policy once they have established their portfolios. This is because there is no advantage in changing from one group of securities to another. By doing this, there would be transaction costs which they would have to incur and as a result, the risk-adjusted return would be affected. Altering the composition of a portfolio can only be justified a) if the risk exposure has changed due to relative changes in the market value of the constituent securities. b) if tax payments can be minimized. Other implications of EMH are: Price changes are random and unpredictable Investors are not easily fooled by the glossy financial reports or à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"creative accounting techniques Timing of new issues of securities are not important since prices represent the intrinsic and will reflect the degree of risk in the share. Thus under EMH neither fundamental nor technical analysis can be used to achieve superior gains. Investors should concentrate on constructing and holding efficiently diversified portfolios. 2.6 Empirical Evidences Based on the literature, it can be seen that there are two competing schools of thoughts about market efficiency. The first school argues that markets are efficient and as a result, returns cannot be predicted. For example early studies (Working, 1934; Kendall, 1943, 1953; Cootner, 1962; Osborne, 1962; Fama, 1965) on developed markets support the weak form efficiency of the market with a low degree of serial correlation and transaction cost. The studies in this school of thought, support the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and show that price changes could not be used to forecast future price changes, especially after transaction costs were taken into account. The second school, on the other hand, provides empirical evidence of à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"anomalies that contradict the theory of efficient markets. Some of these studies are Summers (1986), Keim (1988), Fama and French (1988), Lo and MacKinlay (1988) and Poterba and Summers (1988). They found some à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"anomalies, which could not be explained by the theory of Fama (1965). Some of the market anomalies that they found are: January Effect/Turn of The Year Effect Stock returns are usually abnormally high during the first few days of January. The January effect occurs because many investors choose to sell some of their stock right before the end of the year in order to claim a capital loss for tax purposes. Then they quickly reinvest their money after the new year, causing stock prices to rise. Rozeff and Kinney (1976) was among the first to prove this market anomaly. Rozeff and Kinney (1976) methodology gives smaller companies greater relative influence than would be true in value-weighted indices where large firms dominate. Subsequent researches (Reinganum, 1983; Roll, 1983, among others) later confirm that the January effect is a small cap phenomenon. Size Effect/Small Firm Effect The Size Effect is the tendency for firms with a small market capitalization to outperform larger companies over the long term. For example Banz (1981) and Reinganum (1981) showed that small-capitalization firms on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) earned a return in excess of what would be predicted by the Sharpe (1964) Linter (1965) capital asset-pricing model (CAPM) from 1936-1975. However as mentioned by G.W. Schwert (2003, p.943), it seems that the small-firm anomaly has disappeared since the initial publication of the papers that discovered it. Alternatively, the differential risk premium for small-capitalization stocks has decreased over the years. Weekend Effect/Day of The Week Effect This is a phenomenon in which stock returns on Mondays are often significantly lower than those of the immediately preceding Friday. French (1890) observed this anomaly. He noted that the average return to the Standard and Poors (SP) Composite Portfolio was reliably negative over weekends in the periods 1953-1977. Again, like the size effect, the weekend effect seems to have disappeared, or at least substantially attenuated, since it was first documented in 1980. Value Effect/Price Earnings Ratio Effect The value effect refers to the tendency for stocks with low price earnings ratio to outperform portfolios consisting of stocks with a high price earnings ratio. Basu (1977) shows that investors holding low price earnings ratio portfolio earned higher returns. The existence of market anomalies have important implications. If stock returns do not follow a random process, then it is possible to design profitable trading strategies based on historical information 2.6.1 Empirical Evidences from Developing Countries Despite the large number of empirical studies that have been conducted to test the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in developed countries with booming financial markets, studies to support or dispute the efficiency or inefficiency of the African stock markets are quite limited. There is a small number of empirical studies analyzing emerging African equity markets with regards to weak form of market efficiency test. While some of these studies have analysed single markets ( e.g. Samuels and Yacout 1981; Parkinson 1984; Ayadi 1984; Dickinson and Muragu 1994; Osei 1998; Olowe 1999; Mecagni and Sourial 1999; Asal 2000; Adelegan, 2004; Dewotor and Gborglah, 2004; Ntim et al., 2007), others have analysed groups of countries (e.g. Claessens et al., 1995; Magnusson and Wydick, 2002; Smith et al., 2002; Appiah-Kusi and Menya, 2003; Simons and Laryea, 2004; Jefferis and Smith, 2005). However, while there are only a few empirical studies, their conclusions as to the efficiency and predictability of future stock returns have been mixed. For example Dickinson and Muragu (1994) shows that the Kenyan stock market is weak form efficient, in contrast to the results of Parkinson (1984). Also, most of the existing studies made use of conventional weak form testing techniques such as serial correlation tests. Samuels and Yacout (1981) and Parkinson (1984) were among the first to use serial correlation tests to examine the weak form efficiency on the African continent. Samuels and Yacout analysed the weak form market efficiency in weekly price series of 21 listed Nigerian firms from 1977 to 1979 and provided empirical evidence that the market was efficient. Parkinson on his part, analysed monthly price series of 30 listed Kenyan firms from 1974 to 1978 and rejected the weak form efficiency. Dickinson and Muragu (1994) reinvestigated the Kenyan market by applying run and serial correlation tests to weekly stock price series of 30 listed companies on the Nairobi Stock Exchange and their results were in contrast with Parkinson (1984). They demonstrated that successive price changes are independent of each other for the majority of the companies investigated. Most of the developing countries suffer from the problem of thin trading (Mlambo and Biekpe, 2005). The problems caused by thin trading have been widely acknowledged in financial market researches (e.g., Dimson, 1979; Cohen et al. ,1983; Butler and Simonds, 1987; Lo and Mackinlay, 1990a and b; Bowie, 1994; Muthuswamy and Whaley, 1994) . Fisher (1966) who was the first to identify the bias caused by thin trading in the serial correlation of index returns, explained that recorded prices of securities are not necessarily equal to their underlying theoretical values. This is because when a share does not trade, the price recorded remains the closing price when the share was last traded. However, while most of the African stock markets suffer from thin trading, many existing studies fail to adjust for thin trading. For example recent studies conducted on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (Appiah-Kusi and Menya, 2003 and Simons and Laryes, 2004) made used of conventional techniques and did not adjust for thin trading. Other studies (Kabba, 1998; Roux and Gilberson, 1978 and Poshawale, 1996) which have examined the behavior of stock price and rejected the weak-form efficiency, have explained that the inefficiency might be due to delay in operations and high transaction cost, thinness of trading and illiquidity in the market.

Prisoners Abuse in Guantanamo Bay Essay

Research indicates that the prisoners at the Guantanamo bay are usually subjected to torture by the prison administrators and guards at the bay. This torture is reported to come up as a result of the torture policy in the United States has led to many inmates at the Guantanamo Bay being treated badly by the prison administrators and guards, who always term them as animals, since they have no one in the legislative to represent them during their trials as they do not have enough knowledge on the judicial systems of their country. In the cases where the offenders are women who are in prison, they happen to undergo a tougher physical and sexual abuse than if the offenders are said to be men. The women normally suffer from mental illness due to the recurring physical or sexual abuse. Apart from the above problem the women also suffer from eating disorders resulting to health problems. Discussion A great number of detainees have been recorded to have been tortured willingly by the united states forces at the Guantanamo Bay while others are jailed with no reason this inmates are found to be mistreated in a manner that can not be avoided this torture usually include; sexual humiliation, threats put on the inmates with dogs these among others are filed as a mode of interrogation in the united states an example of this is in the case where the military guards at the Bay were reported to have tortured the Iraqi inmates whereby, we find that the prisoners were tortured as from being threatened with dogs, being striped naked and also they were forced to wear female underpants on their heads, it was believed that this techniques were authorized by the senior states officials. (Bill 2004) We also find that, President Bush’s administration has advocated for the use of electric shock devices to torture the prisoners at Guantanamo Bay this is well explained in a situation where we find that the state has been exporting devices such as the stun buttons, stun guns among others being exported to other countries such as Cuba, Haiti, India, Turkey and Lebanon. In this case we find that many companies dealing with the production of such weapons have been shipping these products without a license from the government. Through this, there has been an increase in the cases of torturing prisoners in other countries apart from the United States of America. A case of Zahide Durgun who was tortured by the Turkish police in Hakkari where she was tortured with electric shocks to her ear and was later beaten this happened as a result of the police wanting her to accept that she was a member of the political party opposing the government of Turkey. This is well presented in the case released by the FBI report claiming that he had ordered the State to have an inhumane interrogation system against the Iraqis’ detainees; these methods included the sleep deprivation, stress positions and the use of military dogs it is therefore propounded that the Defense department had adopted systems which were illegal and immoral in this instances we find that the CIA had many times refused to contradict the existence of many record of torture in America since it had been confirmed to be involved in the torturing of especially the prisoners in Iraq and in many other CIA facilities for detention globally. The federal has been engaging in torturing its detainees in a manner that provokes their country of originality the best example for this is the situation where interrogation was being conducted by an official in the department of defense where the prisoner was wrapped in an Israel flag whereby the detainee was later shelled with loud mus ic and strobe light. (Johnston, 2006) In the year 2002, the White House was opposed by the Collin Powell who was then the Secretary of the State who had cautioned about the United States breaching the Geneva Convention but the federal went ahead claiming that, the countries inmates were not protected by the Geneva Conventions since some of the detainees were those from Afghanistan who were termed as unlawful enemies, this therefore attracted the attention of most lawyers in the country who came up with legal guidelines for the unlawful act, this action made the military lawyers informed that the breaching of the Geneva convention will lead to the exposure of the states soldiers who were captured to the same torture, after which theses military lawyers took a step forward to see the international human rights lawyer Scott Horton asking the lawyer to give them a stipulated effort in the creation of an environment that has legal ambiguity and also one that shows how the Geneva Conventions was to apply to detainees in the Ba y. (Scranton and Paula 1991) The Effects of the Torture Policy on the Prisoners at the Guantanamo Bay The main policy implication that makes the criminals to be hard cores is always the length of time that the criminals spend in the jails. When they are released for example and directed to attend rehabilitation programs they feel to be wasted because they think that by serving in jail for a long period they are isolated in the society and others may get involved in revenging activities which may cause them more danger of being punished. Under longer prison sentences at the Guantanamo Bay the offender has nothing that will guarantee him protection against the offence he commits which sometimes ends up wasting all his life in jail. Due to the limited informational, educational sources in the prisons, the offender finds it hard to accept change in his mode of life and the behavior that he is addicted in him/her. This means that there are no correction measures which makes the person to become devastated psychologically thus feeling uneasy and may seek to live where he need to help himself escape such a feeling of loneliness and lack of social support through which he may decide to pay any price and sacrifice self-esteem thus forfeiting his life. (Eysenck and Hans, 1996) In some cases the offenders at the prison who are under solitary confinement, are reported to be suffering from disruption of a normal mental function that is normally caused by threats, lack of sleep, starvation and fear of death. Though the incarceration form was meant to encourage a person to confront his own consciousness, it has only led to the offenders at the Bay being stressed because they are under jail conditions that are always cruel and not effective. The conditions in prisons are not normally conducive for an offender such as the coldness of the cells, the food given to the prisoners is always bad and lack of human decency plus noise normally causes resistance to the prisoners for rehabilitation programs. Recommendations As a recommendation for the reduction of the prisoners’ torture at the bay we find that the US federal is urged to come up with laws that enable the treatment of criminals without harsh conditionality. Although, the offenders are entitled to particular constitutional laws, they have various rights in their lives including; the right to be tried by the jury, to be cross-examined and the right to an immediate trial. Since the society has developed a growing concern over the criminal behavior which is ever increasing, the justice system is urged to provide a delinquent preventive measure that will be aimed at preventing the members of the society from indulging in criminal activities. Due to growing concerns over the increased number of criminals, countries have formulated laws that ensure that the criminals especially those detained at the Guantanamo bay involved in criminal cases are restored back to being good people in the society and they have identified rehabilitation policies or program as the best way to nature them instead of putting them under torture like what is happening the Guantanamo bay. Rehabilitation is widely believed by many to be the principal reason of reducing crime. (Committee on Law and Justice, 2004) Rehabilitation normally involves the teaching and training the persons who are addicted to a particular behavior to stop the defective behavior and try to become acceptable members of the society. Therefore under this, the society is given the responsibility of assisting these addicts or criminals by helping them to get hope through various programs that they will be educated thus helping them to heal their bodies and mind. The strengths associated with rehabilitation policies are that the addict will achieve through these Programs education which allows the offender an opportunity to re-enter into the society as a responsible and productive citizen. For example, the people who undergo rehabilitation programs are normally allowed to receive counselling and guidance. For example a rehabilitation program may involve the offenders at the Guantanamo bay in doing community work, such as cleaning the environment and activities that they think suits to the foundation of their interests. This will make them appreciate who they are and accept their presence and roles in the particular society. (Kleinman, 2000) The strength for rehabilitating criminals is that there is always a collective supervision that will be able to provide an environment favourable enough to meet the special needs of the offenders which will help them to join the society newly as responsible and respected persons. However, rehabilitation is prone to some weaknesses which hinder the process of trying to help the offenders to be good and reliable people in the society. For example, the criminals or offenders subjected to rehabilitation programs at the Guantanamo bay feel isolated in the society and thus will not corporate during the entire process. They view themselves as rejected people in the society who are treated maliciously. These aspects make them to feel unworthy in the society and hence after the rehabilitation programs they don’t change but instead continue with bad behavior that they used to engage themselves in. Also another weakness is lack of government support in supporting rehabilitation programs, for example laxity in funding the programs thus few drug addicts and criminal offenders are subjected to such programs. This has resulted to seeking donors who can fund the programs, an activity which is difficult because it’s very hard to find willing donors. (Eysenck and Hans, 1996) Conclusion Torture in the Guantanamo bay prisons is a major problem for many in America and other nations, but the war on Iraq and Afghanistan and the whole issue of terrorism has been stressing the Americans because of the harsh policies imposed by the Bush administration on torture. In general we can therefore deduce that President Bush has not performed his responsibilities and the duties of the president in the maintaining the rights of the detainees in the required way. America is not better of since Bush took over power therefore the next president has a lot of work ahead in rebuilding and restructuring the country’s’ prison administration, for this reasons the federal is given an opportunity to amend and address the effects caused by the torture policy in Guantanamo bay. (Scranton and Paula 1991)

Facebook Porter’s Five

Porter’s five forces analysis has become a pervasively adopted framework for industry analysis, which can be used to examine the competitive intensity and attractiveness of a market or a company. The social networking companies gradually come into the spotlight of the business world in recent years, which was especially featured by the significant event of Facebook’s IPO on May 18, 2012. In such circumstances, it will be extremely interesting to apply the five forces analysis to gauge this giant and even unfold some hints that why this star company has been struggling in the stock market since it went public.Although it has been a tough time period for Mark Zuckerberg, the more transparency and disclosure of the company’s financial as well as operational information available for the capital market provide us much more useful resources to put Facebook under our microscope of five forces analysis. The Bargaining Power of Customers (Strong) With regard to customer aspect, it might be taken for granted that we are referring to billions of active users on this website.But when we look further into this company and its product, the surprising truth is that the users and their personal information are actually the product rather than the customer, at least from the financial standpoint. Advertising composes 84% of the company’s total revenue, which was $1. 18 billion for the second quarter of 2012 according to its official financial reports. Then we found out that the advertisers are Facebook’s real customers, and what confronts this company is a fiercely competitive market.Although Facebook declared that 70% of its advertising campaigns resulted in a return on ad spend of 3x or better, and 49% of campaigns showed 5x or better, Facebook adverting is still generally undervalued by the marketers given the factor of being the last ad viewed or clicked before a conversion outweighs all other criteria, and Facebook advertising usually co mes into play earlier in the conversion funnel. In addition to the low cost to switch to other advertising media, there’s no wonder that the advertisers have gained relatively strong, if not dominant, bargain power with continuously debating the value of Facebook advertising.The Bargaining Power of Suppliers(Medium) Compared to the customers’ bargain power, Facebook is standing at a regnant position with thousands of common-sense suppliers playing in its arena. It may be noticed that I use common-sense to categorize such kinds of suppliers providing hardware, software, and services Facebook need to run their business, like Zynga. On the other side, it might be interesting to scrutinize another set of suppliers in terms of Facebook’s product, that is, the users of the website.Yes, those are the users who establish their social network and feed in their personal information, which make up of Facebook’s product and determine its success. In accordance with F acebook’s operational highlights of second quarter 2012, monthly active users on its website have notched 955 million as of June 30, 2012, which was an increase of 29% year-over-year. But taking the whole social networking market and even the internet into consideration, it will be difficult for Facebook to maintain such steady increase of its user base.Actually, the increase pace has gradually slowed down in recent quarters, observed by multiple sources. Additionally, the users with more education and experience have been reluctant to share excessive personal information on the website to protect privacy and prevent from possible solicitation. After all, Facebook still serves as the mostly visited social networking website and is therefore in demand of diversified supplies, so we could regard the bargaining power of suppliers as medium level. The Threat of Established Rivals(Strong)As discussed, the social networking companies are facing a fully competitive market. Besides F acebook, there are several other main players, including LinkedIn, Google, Yammer, Myspace, etc, as well as hundreds of small websites focusing on specific segment or providing general social networking services. For example, LinkedIn has built up a professional network into a can’t-miss destination with millions of member professional. The year-over-year revenue growth for LinkedIn was very remarkable at over 80% for the last two years, and it has continued to see strong revenue growth beating analyst estimates.LinkedIn has shown an even more robust business model compared with Facebook. Rather than solely relaying on advertising income, LinkedIn also has considerable revenue from job postings and subscriptions, which help the company to grow its revenue at a notable rate and avoid stagnancy. In this sense, Facebook may have more struggles to improve its user experience and spur revenue growth especially compared with its competitors, and the threat of established rivals is absolutely strong. The Threat of New Entrants(Strong)For new entrants to social networking market, the technical barriers are barely insignificant and Facebook’s most advantage might be its current huge user base. But such advantage is also easy to be mimicked by other Internet giants who already have stable visitor stickiness like Google. Google launched its social networking and identity service, Google+, in June 2011. As of September 2012, it already has a total of 400 million registered users of whom 100 million are active on a monthly basis.Instead of presenting as a social player consisting of not just a single site, Google has been able to provide an overarching layer integrating many of its current online properties. Illustrated by Google’s story, the threat of new entrants to social networking market for Facebook is quite strong and even thrilling if we recall the ever-changing world of internet business. The Threat of Substitute Products(Weak) Finally, the th reat of substitute products to social network website including Facebook is not obvious yet.Facebook’s current user base still shows a strong stickiness and its continuous innovation also help it satisfy the user’s social networking needs well. But considering Facebook is essentially a social network that allows users to stay in touch with their friends, there are so many products or services could potentially address it. Especially if we observed the booming market of mobile networks, services like Buzzd, Twango and Dada may grow up to be a real threat in the near future. Overall, the threat of substitute products is medium based on the analysis above.

The Church And The System Of Monarchy - 1430 Words

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